The Price of Market Driven Transparency

The Price of Market Driven Transparency.

Splitbox Journal • Principle of Capital

Consensus views the N10.61 trillion debt service spike as a fiscal collapse. This is wrong. N9.37 trillion of that figure is a non-cash accounting realization of exchange rate depreciation. It is the price of ending currency subsidies.

Nigeria is not spending this cash on interest. It is finally recording the true cost of its previous denials. This transparency is the only way to restore market trust. Without it, the sovereign remains excluded from global capital.

The infrastructure gap is no longer a government project. The private sector now absorbs sovereign risk to fund development. The state has shifted from builder to debt stabilizer. This is the new baseline for fiscal health.

Investors must look past the headline deficit. The true indicator of recovery is the stabilization of the debt service to revenue ratio. Everything else is just noise from the transition to a market rate.

— Splitbox Journal