Separating pride from the spreadsheet

Separating pride from the spreadsheet.

Splitbox Journal • Operator's Notebook

Scale is not stability.

The Dangote Refinery IPO seeks 2.15 trillion naira at 525 naira per share. Investors view this as a national milestone. This is a psychological trap.

The Endowment Effect makes investors overvalue assets they feel they own collectively. National pride is not a valuation metric. It creates a dangerous lack of sell-discipline when margins compress.

At a 65.22 trillion naira potential market cap, the index becomes a derivative of one plant. You are no longer buying a sector. You are underwriting the mechanical uptime of a single distillation unit.

Model this as a pure commodity play. It is subject to global margin volatility, not sovereign protection. Pride is a poor hedge against a refining margin crash.

Further reading: splitboxltd.com

— Splitbox Journal